newable energy. As the cost of conventional fuels continues to rise,
more attention will inevitably be paid to alternative forms of energy,
all of which currently suffer from a combination of economic and
technical drawbacks. Fossil fuels account for approximately 89 percent
of world energy consumption, nuclear and hydroelectric account for
about 10 percent, with wind, solar, and biomass accounting for about 1
percent. None of these alternative fuels represents a threat to the
dominance of fossil fuels—at least not yet.
However, over the coming decade, as hydrocarbon fuel costs rise and
32 THE END OF OIL
US–48
Europe
Russia
Other
M. East
Heavy, etc.
Deepwater
Polar
Natural Gas Liquids
Billions of Barrels per Year
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
FIGURE 1.1 In the fashion of Hubbert, Dr. Colin J. Campbell, of the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in Sweden, has
produced the above graph showing his estimate of the peak
production year at 2008. Most economists think somewhere in 2035
to 2045 is the likely time for the oil peak. My estimate is about 2015
to 2020, which I got by simply calculating the midpoint of the
predictions by geologists and economists.
Source: The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, C.J. Campbell,
June 2004.