decline after 30 years of production, while Nigerian oil production is expected
to start falling by the end of this decade.
That will leave us with the Middle East as the sole source of oil in the
future, but already a few Middle East producers, such as Kuwait, have
seen some of their oilfields getting exhausted. No one knows with any
accuracy the situation in Saudi Arabia other than what the government
says. The kingdom has tried to scuttle any such debate, and although
they insist there are more than enough oil reserves, that assessment is
now seriously being questioned.
As a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC), the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been playing politics with its
reserves data. For example, many experts were surprised when OPEC’s
reserves data doubled within a short time during the 1980s. That some
former Saudi Aramco experts are now questioning some of the company’s
own data and the fact that the kingdom’s spare capacity is seriously
restricted—now at 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day—have only added to
speculations that there’s more than the Saudis are publicly saying.
Because reserves outside the Middle East are being depleted much more
rapidly, their overall reserves-to-production ratio, which indicates how long
proven reserves would last at current production rates, is much lower (15
years for the rest of the world compared with 80 years for the Middle East).
If production continues at today’s rate, many of the largest producers
in 2002, such as Russia, Mexico, the United States, Norway, China, and
Brazil will cease to be relevant players in the oil market in less than two
decades, according to the Institute of the Analysts of Global Security
(IAGS), a Washington, D.C., group of former national security officials
who are currently trying to raise awareness about the need for energy security.
At that point, the Middle East will be the only major reservoir of
abundant crude oil. In fact, Middle Eastern producers will have a much
bigger piece of the pie than ever before, the IAGS adds.
Just like now, at the time Hubbert came up with his contrarian forecast,
he found it extremely difficult to get anyone to listen to him. He
was criticized and his employers tried to suppress the publication of his
study. It wasn’t until 1970, when his prediction came true, that some people
began to pay attention. Still, automobile manufacturers and oil executives
mounted counterarguments in the years that followed, supported
by government officials.
His detractors argued that his analysis didn’t account for the growing
production from other producers, especially from members of Organiza-
6 INTRODUCTION